“World’s Most Accurate Economist” Makes FINAL 2024 Prediction

The “world’s most accurate economist” has projected a victory for former President Donald Trump on Election Day, along with a “clean sweep” of Congress by Republicans.

Chief economist and strategist at Market Securities Monaco, Christophe Barraud, stated that U.S. growth is expected to accelerate following the election.

In a post on X, Barraud wrote, “Looking at different metrics such as betting markets, polls, election modelers’ forecasts, [and] financial markets, as of now, the most probable outcomes are: [1] #Trump victory [2] #GOP clean sweep.”

Since 2012, Bloomberg has consistently named Barraud the top U.S. economic forecaster each year, as reported by Fox News.

Barraud added that while he expects economic growth, yields may decrease if Vice President Kamala Harris is chosen and Congress ends up split. This is because the market has largely priced in a Republican win, and under a different result, he suggests, it would adjust downward.

Barraud told Business Insider that if Trump wins but Congress remains divided, tax cuts for businesses and individuals may be difficult to pass. Trump has focused heavily on tax policy, which could potentially slow global growth.

According to Barraud, a Republican control of Congress is currently the most likely scenario.

If Trump secures Republican majority support, he may proceed with tax cuts for businesses and individuals and prioritize domestic policies over international ones.

Barraud estimates that this approach could increase GDP by 2.1% to 2.3% in 2025. However, he cautions that if tax cuts lack sufficient funding, national debt could increase.

Under a Trump administration, the rate on a 10-year Treasury bond is expected to rise from around 4.23% to about 4.5% initially. Barraud believes that with a Republican victory, the rate may go up further to around 5%.

Political analyst Nate Silver’s latest forecast suggests Trump could sweep all major battleground states in 2024.

Silver’s analysis indicates Trump has a 24.4% chance of winning all seven key swing states this November, which is the most probable outcome. Harris, meanwhile, has a 15.6% chance of taking all these states.

According to Silver's model, Harris would win if she secures every swing state except Arizona and Georgia, where Trump currently leads. However, this outcome is only 1.7% likely, while Harris winning Georgia but not Arizona has a 3.4% chance, and Democrats winning Arizona without Georgia holds a 2.9% likelihood.

The model also presents a 4.6% chance of Republicans capturing every swing state except Nevada, where Harris has a slight lead. In this scenario, Trump would win the election as Harris would achieve 232 electoral college votes.

Overall, Silver’s forecast indicates Harris is most likely to win if Democrats secure three to five key states, which would provide her the electoral votes needed if she wins Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. This scenario has an 86.2% chance of success.

Current polls show Trump leading in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, while Harris leads in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. FiveThirtyEight’s tracker puts Trump ahead by 0.2 points in Pennsylvania, but Silver’s model considers the state as tied.

Silver’s model suggests a narrow 0.6% chance of Harris winning the race if she secures only Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. If she adds Pennsylvania, her odds jump to 98.9%. However, this outcome remains only 2.9% likely, according to the model.

Over the past two weeks, predictions have increasingly favored Trump’s chances in the electoral college. Currently, Silver estimates Trump’s chance of winning the electoral vote at 53.1%, while Harris stands at 46.6%.

FiveThirtyEight’s forecast also now leans toward Trump, giving him a 51% chance of victory against Harris’s 49%. Additionally, RealClearPolitics predicts Trump winning all four swing states, granting him 312 Electoral College votes compared to Harris’s 227.

This shift follows the release of four national polls this month, all indicating Trump holds an edge over Harris.

However, the race remains exceptionally close. “The race has gone from almost a toss-up to definitely a toss-up,” Jon Parker, a senior lecturer in American studies at Keele University in the U.K., told Newsweek last week. He added that this “does not mean that either campaign is winning or losing.”